OUR DYSFUNCTIONAL LEADERS

There is mounting evidence which will I believe confirm that the COVID-19 strategy being adopted by most countries is misguided and irresponsible. The number of deaths and the pressure on health services through poverty, unemployment, crime, drug abuse etc. will be far greater than those caused by the virus.

The early predictions that millions and then hundreds of thousands were going to die have already been verified as wildly inaccurate. The best data coming from Stanford and Yale suggest that the deaths will be one in a thousand. Furthermore Dr John Ioannidis of Stanford claims that the majority of these deaths are older people in nursing homes or else front line health care workers. He also contends that 99% of those that die will have at least two underlying conditions.

Statistics tell us that 2.9 million Americans die on average every year. In the last 3 months 62 thousand have died as a result of the virus. 65% of these are in old age homes. What percentage of these would have died anyway and been included in the 2.9 million is unclear but a large portion is probable. Then you have the health care workers who have a high exposure. Again we don’t have statistics.

This taken against the wholesale destruction of millions of people’s lives with 26 million suddenly unemployed in the US is totally disproportionate. That level of unemployment could seriously affect up to 50 or 60 million people depending on the size of the average household affected. There is no cost benefit analysis being done to quantify the fallout economically or societally from the current policies.

There are 40 thousand road deaths every year in the US. By making everybody drive at 25 miles per hour that could be cut in half. But society doesn’t do that because they consider the price too high. However if the media decided to whip up the anxiety levels and really got that fearometer going, the politicians would panic. Thinking that voters might react they could have us all driving at 25 MPH.

It seems a bit obvious to say that life is a risk generally but right now everyone is acting like the only risk that exists in the world is from the virus. Were we to put the same microscope on any other aspect of our vulnerability we wouldn’t get up in the morning never mind remain indoors.

This desire for a sense of invulnerability which has dominated western culture for the past 30 years has reached fever pitch and is behind the run for cover approach. The speed with which countries across the world adopted the lockdown reflects the degree to which the UK and America have exported their culture across the globe. For instance it’s not in the nature of a South African or a New Zealander to run for cover yet that’s exactly what’s happened.

When we only have sheep and have run out of shepherds you can be sure that the lunatics have taken over the asylum.

Dr. Ioannidis also suggests that the risk is comparable to the risk we take driving to work every day. The vast majority of people have little or no risk and the number of people who have or have had the virus and are asymptomatic is significantly greater than we know. This clearly suggests lower risk and greater immunity both of which are positive.

Imagine if heart disease or motor vehicle accidents were looked at in the same way. People would have to sign up for their gym class and you’d be fined if you failed to show. If you were caught eating more of certain types of foods than permitted not only would you be fined but the shop keeper could also face a penalty for selling you more than your quota. Your neighbours could report you if they became aware that you were eating too much chocolate.

They might limit the number of cars on the road at a given time or for how long. You might even have to get a permit to travel at specific times. This information could be available on the internet so that if anyone saw you driving they could check it out on the web if you weren’t entitled to they could report you.

By adopting these measures deaths from heart disease and motor accidents would greatly reduce but we don’t regard such measures as warranted despite the fact that 650 thousand Americans die from heart disease every year. Many of these are preventable but we don’t enforce prevention on anybody.

The statistics even at this early stage suggest that far more lives would be saved by implementing such strategies so why not. Well firstly we must acknowledge that our politicians are hard wired to prioritize votes and legacy when making decisions. Secondly we must acknowledge that the media are hard wired to heighten our anxiety levels as a back drop to any position they take.

The politicians and the media are the principle stakeholders in the current strategy. We the victims are mere pawns. I contend that the reason we haven’t adopted such policies in respect of heart disease or motor deaths is that the fearometer hasn’t been ratcheted up by the media or our policy makers in respect of either.

The panic from both quarters generated by the virus meant that the first response was ill conceived. Then once the train had left the station more and more stakeholders got on board with divergent but compatible agendas until this train became unstoppable.

We have the caring concerned politician who is ignoring all other risks to society but is now hamstrung by their initial reaction. There is the WHO who are in the pocket of China. Ethiopia is a satellite of China long since paid for. The Ethiopian leader of the WHO has been exposed as participating in the early cover up by the Chinese. There is the Chinese themselves who are making profit from selling protective gear to the west while they expand their interests in the south pacific, Europe, Africa and America. We must include the Pharma companies who are so nobly working on a vaccine with the support of governments and the WHO. We also have the Google’s and Amazon’s of this world who see an opportunity to enhance online activity and expand their logistics businesses. Then we have the  FDA in America who are standing in the way of allowing doctors to administer Hydroxychloroquine despite it’s success in a number of European and South American jurisdictions. After all bureaucrats are all about process and control before outcome.

Finally we have the media who have become society’s permanent political party and who will always remain in power despite never having to go through the ignominy of an election.

Strangely or maybe not so strangely there is an absence of computer modelling when it comes to analysing the effects of mass unemployment and poverty. There is no interest in doing this because in their heart of hearts the policy makers know what it would show. They are in a bind of their own making and don’t know any way out.

The most credible and obvious example to look at is Sweden. Their policy of protecting the vulnerable but allowing the remainder of society to get on with life taking sensible precautions should be adopted across the world. There are those who suggest that the Swedes are better at listening to their government. Well I think the speed and the ease with which we have all accepted the police state that we are living in indicates that this is not just a Swedish trait. However politicians increasingly don’t trust us to take individual responsibility and operate on the basis that we need to be told. Well in my world that is making us subjects not citizens and is unacceptable. 

You cannot protect people to the extent that they are trying to. Even greater problems will materialise. It’s not impossible that 100 years of lifting people out of poverty through free enterprise and the creativity of people could be reversed in a few short years and we revert to a world we thought we’d left behind where we are governed by dictators, where everything is centrally controlled and where the individual is secondary at all times.

Good decisions are always always based on balancing the risk and reward equation. We need a real leader, somebody with the courage to admit the mistakes made so far and face up to the reality.

eorafferty@topmail.ie